U.S. economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new U.S. intelligence report on global trends. This report released in November 2008 from the National Intelligence Council predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge American preeminence. It also says the dollar may no longer be the world’s major currency and that food and water shortages will fuel conflict. The report, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders. I say that it depends more on the actions of ordinary citizens like you and me.
The preeminence we enjoy as Americans is neither a divine right nor a gift. We earned it. We became a great nation because our great grandparents, grandparents and parents answered the call and accomplished what no nation had done before.
Now the call is upon us again, but the landscape is very different. China and India both are hungrier for preeminence than we are. And, based on sheer numbers alone, their opportunities for success are greater. For example, China graduates 250,000 engineers a year, compared with 50,000 in the U.S. To recharge our dwindling lead, we must educate ourselves better than they do. We must create new opportunities for this great nation and KEEP those opportunities HERE rather than selling them to our national competition.
I have a very small job with UPS, currently the greatest shipping company on the planet. Every night I see the results of exported American technology when planeloads of PCs built with our manufacturing, design and software know-how arrive here in Louisville. Dell and H-P ship tens of thousands of their products daily from China. In my two years at UPS Freight, I’ve watched the volume of imports from Asia and Latin America increase significantly. During that time, our American shipping volume has remained essentially flat. America is producing less at home, opting instead to close factories in Ohio and Michigan and relocate them to Mexico or China.
In this context, I see in this report my opportunity to do something about guaranteeing American preeminence. I can provide superior service to my customers. If given the opportunity to ship early, I can take it. When a shipment is due tomorrow and we still have the opportunity to make flight or truck it, I can take it…even if it means exhorting my employees to stay a few more minutes. And why? Not because FedEx has its Louisville operations down the street. It’s because I know that there is a younger person in China, with more energy and better grades, who has to make the same decision.
Now is the time to demonstrate that we are the greatest nation in the world. We have much work to do. As a nation, we have to become hungrier, leaner and more competitive. As a necessary first step, we must become less divisive and learn again to be a nation.
Next, take nothing for granted. Asian economies are strong and growing partly because workers there realize there is always someone waiting in line for the opportunity to replace them. Unfortunately, we too often assume that our livelihoods and current national preeminence is a birthright. Wrong.
Finally, replace rhetoric with action. We can no longer afford to sit back and tell each other how great America is. That lip service falls on deaf ears in Asia anyway. Regardless of predicted trends of waning American influence, we need to roll up our sleeves and get to work. Whatever work that is, do your very best. It has implications that are greater than yourself…it has the potential of keeping our nation great.
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